¿Son los Pirineos una barrera real para el transporte atmosférico de polen?

Los resultados del estudio llevado a cabo por Jordina Belmonte y Concepción de Linares, investigadoras expertas en botánica de la UAB, constatan que el polen de abedul, una de las especies principales de plantas que causan alergia en Europa Central y del Norte.

Ice age thermostat prevented extreme climate cooling

During the ice ages, an unidentified regulatory mechanism prevented atmospheric CO2 concentrations from falling below a level that could have led to runaway cooling, reports a study conducted by researchers of the ICTA-UAB and published online in Nature Geoscience this week.

The New Theory of Economic “Agrowth” Contributes to the Viability of Climate Policies

 ICTA-UAB researcher Jeroen van den Bergh publishes in Nature Climate Change a study in which he proposes a new economic theory compatible with the fight against climate change.

Map Commemorating Women’s Resistance to Extractivism and Defense of Life and Territory in Latin America

A map created by researchers at the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), the Latin-American Network of Women Defending Social and Environmental Rights and the Colombian NGO CENSAT-Agua Viva Friends of the Earth Colombia makes visible the struggles of women in Latin America against mining and in defense of life.

Es preveuen alts nivells de pol·len per a aquesta primavera

Investigadors de la Xarxa Aerobiològica de Catalunya de l’ICTA-UAB han presentat avui les previsions dels nivells de pol·len i espores a l’atmosfera a Catalunya per a la primavera i l’estiu.

The Azores Islands were inhabited a century and a half before the Portuguese colonization, according to the fossil pollen found in a...

• Research involving the ICTA-UAB finds pollen of rye and other cereals in the sediments of Lago Azul and redefines the timing of human occupation of the Portuguese archipelago.

European Project to Analyse the Effects of Waste Generated by Tourism on Mediterranean Islands

An European study involving the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma e Barcelona will address and propose solutions to the effects of the increase of waste generated by tourism on Mediterranean islands during the summer season.

El ICTA-UAB volverá Locos por la Naturaleza a 27 estudiantes de bachillerato

Un total de 27 estudiantes de bachillerato participan en la tercera edición del programa Locos por la Naturaleza que ofrece el Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) con la voluntad de promover el talento científico entre los jóvenes potenciando el conocimiento del medio natural y poniéndolos en contacto con los principales investigadores en la materia.

More Urban Green Needed in Barcelona to Have Positive Effects on Environmental Quality and Wellness

A PhD dissertation by Francesc Baró, from ICTA-UAB, quantifies and maps the benefits of urban and periurban green in Barcelona such as the improvement of air quality, climate change mitigation and opportunities for outdoor recreation.

New ICTA-UAB 'Welcome Guide'

The new ICTA-UAB 'Welcome Guide' it is at your disposal now. With this document, we aim to help you discover the basics of the PhD programme, ICTA-UAB’s structure, etc.

Social Relations, Success in Hunting and Good Health, Sources of Happiness for Indigenous People

Rural and indigenous people from the Global South push absolute income into the background as source of wellbeing.

Treatment plants reduce contamination of heavy metals around Barcelona's coastline

The study, published in Science of the Total Environment, shows that contamination of heavy metals experienced a very important growth between the 1930s and 1980s, while a drastic descent in levels occurred in the 1990s.

Increase in motorcycles converts Barcelona into the European city with the highest number of motorbikes per inhabitant

A study by researchers of the ICTA-UAB and the UAB Department of Geography assesses the rise of motorcycles compared with the drop in cars in Barcelona in the past ten years.

More than One-Third of the Population Would Stop Economic Growth to Achieve Sustainability

A study by researchers of the Institut of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA-UAB) assesses Spanish public opinion on economic growth, the environment and prosperity.

ICTA-UAB and ISGlobal Researchers Denounce Lack of Studies on the Harmful Health Effects of Oil Spills

A project led by ICTA-UAB, ISGlobal and the UAB Faculty of Veterinary Medicine in the Peruvian Amazon analyses the health effects of oil spills among people living close to oil extraction areas in developing countries.

Humans have caused climate change for 180 years

An international research project involving ICTA-UAB researcher P. Graham Mortyn has found human activity has been causing global warming for almost two centuries, proving human-induced climate change is not just a 20th century phenomenon.

Do Greener Cities Become More Unjust?

A new research project led by ICTA-UAB researcher Isabelle Anguelovski and funded by the European Union will assess the “green gentrification” process by which the creation of green urban amenities tends to attract the higher social classes and excludes the most vulnerable groups.

The ICTA-UAB Will Assess, in Collaboration with EU Staff, the Effectiveness of EU Sustainability Policies

The EU Project MAGIC (H2020) coordinated by the Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) has the goal to study and develop new strategies for a better use of science for governance.

ICTA-UAB receives María de Maeztu Excellence Award

The Institute of Environmental Science and Technology has received the award as a "María de Maeztu" Unit of Excellence 2015 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO).
Seminaris
Seminar- Climate numbers and climate wars. A fatal attraction? By Andrea Saltelli

Date: 2017-03-08

 

Title: Climate numbers and climate wars. A fatal attraction?

Lecturer: Andrea Saltelli
Moderator: Jordina Belmonte Soler

Date: Wednesday, March 8th 2017
Time: 12.30h
Venue: Room Z/023


In the polarized climate change debate, cost-benefit analyses of policy options are taking on an increasingly influential role. These analyses have been presented by authoritative scholars as a useful contribution to the debate.

But models of climate—and especially models of the impact of climate policy—are theorists’ tools, not policy justification tools. The methods used to appraise model uncertainties give optimistic lower bounds on the true uncertainty, at best. Even in the finest modeling exercises, uncertainty in model structure is presented as known and manageable, when it is likely neither. Numbers arising from these modeling exercises should therefore not be presented as “facts” providing support to policy decisions, nor be used as ammunition into increasingly virulent science wars. 

Building more complex models of climate will not necessarily reduce the uncertainties. Indeed, if previous experience is a guide, such models will reveal that current uncertainty estimates are unrealistically small.

Bio
Andrea Saltelli has worked for many years in the European Commission. One of his main interest is in sensitivity analysis of model output, a discipline in which statistical tools are used to interpret the output of mathematical or computational models, and in sensitivity auditing, an extension of sensitivity analysis to the entire evidence-generating process in a policy context. Andrea has just published with ICTA's Mario Giampietro a paper entitled   "What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved?". The two have  also published articles of critique of the ecological footprint. 

Andrea has recently participated to the debate on the crisis of science and the post-truth with pieces on the online journal The Conversation and a book in 2016 entitled Science on the Verge.
 
He is presently based at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) at the European Centre for Governance in Complexity, a joint undertaking of UAB and of the University of Bergen where Andrea is adjunct professor.  

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